Morgan Rogers' Scoring Streak Drives Aston Villa's Improbable Title Charge
Just eight weeks in the past that the young forward was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed while the Villa manager admonished him for missing a penetrating pass. At that point, with the team endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear if his displays were a sign or the source for the team's more general malaise.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
In the latest match, though, the sideline response was much more joyous. As the England international curled home his second strike to restore Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician discarded his winter coat, spread his arms and bellowed. The team continued to a 10th successive win and despite not winning their opening six games, now sit a mere three points behind the leaders Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Legitimate Title Contenders?
It remains an exceptionally difficult question to address. Past precedent, the perceived status of this institution, indicates otherwise. Moreover, their performances haven't been wholly dominant this season, even as the positive results have stacked up.
As per Opta, in only two games have Villa had an xG significantly higher than the opposition. For a team which has just won 10 in a row, Villa look strangely fragile – yet currently the fine lines are swinging for them.
The Winning Formula
Their recent policy appears to be to exchange chances with the opposition and then rely on Rogers to rescue them with a couple of precise efforts. This was the case at Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and once more versus United.
Rogers' first goal came from a brilliant finish, curled just inside the upright from a wide position. His brace-completing goal was essentially a slight scruffier version of the opener as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Is It Sustainable?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opponents registered more shots and more efforts on goal. Villa have won each of their last eight by a single goal. The defence has been breached in all but one of those fixtures.
A statistical correction could be the most significant challenge they have to face over the coming weeks. Rogers, surely, cannot keep on drilling his shots into the top corner indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Could it be an alternative path in which, rather than results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures could still rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward may begin to finding the net regularly.
- The winger may rediscover the player he resembled in Germany.
- The injured centre-backs are due to regain fitness, strengthening a periodically leaky backline.
This could contain the potential of a genuine bid, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.
Relishing the Unlikely
Yet, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable the team would occupy third at Christmas. And most definitely earlier this season, few could imagine the young forward now would be at the forefront of a title charge and appearing as a crucial player for the national team.
The current run should be enjoyed precisely because it appears so improbable. When Rogers positioned himself before the North End when the game ended leading the celebrations, he seemed to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. These spells are rare in football and must be appreciated.