Keir Starmer's Backers Launch 'Halt Andy Burnham' Effort to Block Mayor's Parliamentary Return
Close associates of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a concerted effort to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to the House of Commons. This move follows the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an impending byelection.
Significant Barriers in the Selection Procedure
Several figures on the Labour Party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have apparently predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection process. This is largely due to the sizable presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are keen to avert any potential leadership challenge.
The party apparatus reportedly swung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned resignation, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the substantial financial cost and electoral danger of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted anger in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that many MPs had urged him to run for the party leadership.
It has long been believed that he is seeking a return to parliament to potentially stand for the party leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against overstating the level of any scheming, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Current Climate and Poll Ratings
Amid opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only senior Labour figure with consistently positive public approval ratings.
If Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple hurdles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the byelection against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any possible bid for the leadership.
Efforts to Block Burnham
Senior Labour sources have said that a "Block Burnham" operation is already in progress, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself said that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to stop talking about possible contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
Figures on the committee have reportedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.
A number of insiders also expressed concerns about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.
Union Influence and Procedural Fears
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. It is also possible the body could impose an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
Yet, one Burnham ally counselled against presuming the NEC would automatically reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.
The trade unions hold a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently remaining quiet, sources indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The seat in question holds a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to mount a significant campaign, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.
If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the backbenches.
The departing MP confirmed he was resigning due to declining mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He also remains subject to a standards inquiry concerning his involvement in an inappropriate online group.
