A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has got important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
