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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple script. It frequently functions as a kind of mea culpa. Our apologies we misjudged your franchise in our preseason forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who engineered the largest resurgence wins the prize. However, it fuels an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring superior leadership or simply the most shocking surprise.

Yet this year's field is profoundly unique. The group of nominees is remarkably strong. It has been the year of turnarounds. The league has been unpredictable, with recent division champions fading and longtime strugglers improving together. In an normal season, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in this chaotic and fun season, he's facing multiple other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the ideal vote could look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right environment, the QB has been given the chance to demonstrate his rare talent. From Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's prolonged performance. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an offense constructed entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action and a innovative passing attack that frees wide-open receivers everywhere. The QB has taken advantage. And when openings weren't available, he's been capable to create big plays from nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a specific offensive blueprint. Almost every bet – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the building with the kind of pressure Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme wizard but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

During a typical year, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. But this is not a normal campaign!

The area where his candidacy runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is in place for long-term winning. But he comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, he has mastered the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a guarantee after his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect staff cocktail of new ideas and experience, Coen hired first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet he has pulled everyone and all elements together.

Following an early strong start, there was a possibility that the season would go off the track. A midseason setback had the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking reliable ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are clear. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year case has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed since that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still