From Superpower to Rogue State: The Implications of the US Seizure of Venezuela's Maduro
Amid the immense confusion regarding the United States attacks on Venezuela, the seizure of President Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “control” the country and “seize control of the oil”, one thing is clear – they set a truly chilling precedent.
A Grim History and a New Escalation
The United States has a grim history of meddling, military incursions, and control in the region, but this past Saturday morning saw its first major military attack on South American land. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” Trump proclaimed.
The decision to unilaterally attack another independent nation and capture its head of state – only a few days after he stated a desire for negotiations – has still wider repercussions. We all have reason to be worried.
Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela
Venezuelans have lived through a dictatorship marked by theft and failure under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face a future of deep insecurity. Mr Trump has remarked that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and brushed aside conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a plausible replacement.
However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far struck a defiant tone – and other parts of the headless administration are even more hardline.
The Superpower as Rogue State
A man who won power promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “not afraid of boots on the ground”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a international peacekeeper; he is transforming it into a lawless actor.
He believes that the America's power allows it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: observe the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He asserts that Venezuelan oil means this latest episode “will be financially free”.
An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty
George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came lacking any form of UN approval or the consent of the US Congress; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump aims not merely to stretch international norms, but to shatter them.
Put aside the implication this carries to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will surely embolden additional military gambits.
The Stated Reason Versus the Real Aims
No one buys the pretext that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently pardoned the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is propelled by the allure of petroleum resources as well as a desire to project strength, the ideology of some in his administration, and the appetite for triumphalism as domestic popularity wanes.
World Leaders' Silence and a Weakened UN
The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been shockingly muted. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but anxiety over Mr Trump’s wrath. The firm response from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode emphasizes the institution’s growing irrelevance.
Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could still pressure him to turn attention back home – but soaring healthcare premiums, financial discontent and other domestic scandals make foreign conflicts more appealing.
It has been less than 12 months into his time in office. The international community may live to repent if they remain quiet at this juncture, with the question of which nation is next looming.
