Everyday Murders in Mexico Drop Over a Third In the Sheinbaum Administration, Per Official Figures

The average figure of daily murders monthly in the country has fallen by more than a third since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, according to recent government statistics. Nevertheless, public safety experts have warned that murder numbers might not indicate improved national stability.

Notable Decline in Per-Day Figures

Officials reported an mean of close to 55 killings a day in November compared with nearly 87 when Sheinbaum began the leadership in September. This information was provided by the director of the country’s national safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The result in murders that we have seen during these months is very important,” the President remarked, explaining that the previous month the least amount of homicides were recorded for any single November in the past decade.

Historical Context and Official Plan

Violent organized crime internal conflicts, alongside the administration's highly military efforts to combat the drug gangs, have caused Mexico’s murder rate escalate in recent times. The figure hit a maximum of 36,773 killings in 2020, per the nation's national statistics office.

That resulted in Mexico a homicide rate over 4x greater than that of the United States. However, murders have been on the decrease, dropping to 33,550 last year. Claudia Sheinbaum has credited her national security plan for an apparently steeper decline in killings this year.

At a press conference in the summer, the Mexican leader declared: “We have a strategy, we have oversight of the strategy, and there is specific monitoring town by town in certain cases. The plan is effective. And we have to persist at it daily.”

The main pillars of the President's security plan include:

• Strengthening Mexico’s federal guard.
• Enhancing information gathering and investigative work.
• Greater collaboration between various agencies.

Expert Caution and Data Limitations

But, security analysts urged caution that using homicide statistics to paint a picture of improved security was flawed. This is particularly true considering the increase in different crimes such as people going missing.

“This would be excellent information if this was a decrease, but I think we must not just focus on the murder numbers and conclude: ‘Oh well, excellent,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexican cartels. “I would be guardedly optimistic.”

According to the public policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, murders in total fell by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year compared with the identical period last year. But, missing persons cases have risen by 15% and in some states have surged by up to 200%.

“Statistics on homicides is no longer valid for estimating the reality of insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and investigators who lack the ability or the inclination to accurately identify and categorize corpses. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the capability to hide violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas noted that relying on monthly means of daily homicides was additionally concerning because it might hide days when there were especially high levels of killings.

“Employing the per-day average makes high peaks of violent crime invisible,” he concluded.

Detentions and Seizures as Measures of Success

An area where the administration can point to the effectiveness of its safety strategy is on detentions and confiscations. Close to 40,000 suspects were apprehended between last October and November 2025 for serious crimes, per official data. Over 20,000 weapons were seized and 311 tonnes of narcotics confiscated.

“Donald Trump cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of not acting, because the reality is she is doing a lot with these thousands of arrests, many thousands of seizures, and all the tactical weakening of organised crime. It’s highly in political terms advantageous,” stated Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Public Anger

Yet despite these measures, Mexico remains beset by high bloodshed, with multiple regions in the midst of cartel-related conflict. In the previous month there was a prominent assassination of a popular mayor in the state of Michoacan, among 10 mayors murdered in the past year.

A short time later, many thousands of young people protested in the capital and across the country to voice their anger at graft and drug violence.

“The administration presents [data] in a way to build a picture of improvement. Politically it’s highly effective, from a social perspective it’s very debatable,” the analyst remarked.