Behind this Pomp of Vladimir Putin's Delhi Visit: The Indo-Russian Bond That Has Weakened.

The diplomatic language and imagery from the Russian leader Vladimir Putin's recent official trip to India hinted at a enduring bilateral relationship. Prime Minister Narendra Modi welcomed Putin at the tarmac with a hug, and the statesmen took a car journey, mirroring a known political style. In his comments, Modi referred to Putin as "my friend" and described the India-Russia bond as a "guiding star", founded on "shared respect and deep trust" that had "weathered the test of time". This marked Putin's 10th trip to India over his quarter-century tenure and his 20th meeting with Modi since the latter took the premiership in 2014.

A Gap Separating Symbolism and Substance

Yet, a significant disconnect persists between the symbolism and the actual content of this partnership. While Putin pledged "continuous fuel supplies" to India, Indian refiners are in fact purchasing a reduced amount of Russian oil due to external tariffs and sanctions. The two countries signed numerous agreements covering migration, health, food security, naval cooperation, and academic collaboration. But, anticipated revelations on significant defence deals did not come to pass. India has not concluded any substantial defence purchases with Russia following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, a trend driven by holdups in shipments of equipment and spare parts as Moscow prioritizes its own wartime requirements.

A Relationship With Diminished Strategic Influence

This all points to that the Indo-Russian relationship no longer carries the same geopolitical weight it once possessed. In the Cold War, India enjoyed special trade terms and economic entry to the USSR and its satellite states. This unique relationship reached its pinnacle in 1971 with a Treaty of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation, concluded ahead of a conflict with Pakistan where Islamabad was backed by the US and China. While both countries have attempted to maintain a semblance of this special tie through a "special and privileged" strategic partnership announced in 2010, the truth is that their engagement does not have the same importance as New Delhi has significantly deepened relations with the Western world.

Broadening and Inherent Tensions

New Delhi is not expected to sever its crucial relationship with Moscow. Yet, as external coercion increases on India to curtail its imports of Russian oil, both countries are attempting to broaden the relationship into new areas. During Putin's trip, they unveiled an economic cooperation programme lasting until 2030, designed to make their ties "broader, balanced and long-lasting". This includes improving market access for Indian goods to rectify a trade deficit strongly tilted in Russia's favor. Collaboration between the two spans several strategically important fields – from aerospace and atomic energy to defence and agriculture.

Ideological Affinity and Seen Dependability

At an ideological level, a significant amount of affinity with Russia persists, especially among older generations of policymakers in New Delhi who recall Moscow's crucial support during the earlier era. This has resulted in a degree of understanding for the Russian viewpoint on the Ukraine war. During ongoing frictions between India and the US, where American leaders have issued sharp comments about the Indian economy, many in India view Russia as a increasingly dependable ally.

The challenge, naturally, is the ongoing war in Ukraine.

The comprehensive declaration released during Putin's visit made no mention to Ukraine, despite it paradoxically described the partnership as an "pillar of global peace and stability". In spite of Modi's much-touted assertion that "now is not the era of war", New Delhi's public steps regarding the war have been limited.

Navigating the Circle: New Delhi's Foreign Policy Balancing Act

This situation highlights the underlying complexities in India's international stance. The nation is set to conclude a trade deal with the European Union, following a comparable agreement with the UK this year. Separately, India, Australia, and Canada declared a three-way technology initiative. There are far more Indian students in the US than in Russia, although moves are being made to boost people-to-people contacts between India and Russia.

How can India square this circle? New Delhi will be banking that ongoing peace negotiations will succeed, leading to a cessation of fighting and the elimination of a major thorn in its ties with the West. However, even if a settlement is reached, if it fails of a "just peace" that respects Ukraine's independence and territorial integrity, critical examination of the India-Russia relationship will certainly persist in Western governments.