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Each time the wind blows northwest from Belarus, Lithuania braces for disruptions.

That is when enormous inflatables are sent across the border, with crates of contraband goods swinging beneath.

Over the recent period, this unauthorized aerial activity has caused Lithuania's main airport into shutdown 15 times, delaying thousands of travellers.

On one occasion, the airspace was shut down entirely for a prolonged 11 hours.

However, the authorities are convinced they are confronting something much more aggressive than mere smugglers.

They contend the balloons have been "weaponised" in an example of unconventional conflict by Belarus, Moscow's key partner.

Emergency Response

The Lithuanian government has announced an official alert.

While balloons have been used by smugglers previously, their numbers suddenly surged this October.

"Of course it started as organised crime activity, but we've seen repeatedly how Belarus exploits criminal networks to have an effect on neighbouring countries," a government minister stated.

The official suggested the balloons are sent from locations that help them best aim at Lithuania's main airport, situated just 30km from the border.

"If you want to conduct a smuggling operation, you'd do it in the forests or swamps, not directly at our airport!" the minister reasoned.

Instead, there is a view that the balloons represent a form of diplomatic leverage on Europe's eastern flank.

"They see this as leverage: 'You have a border with us, we can cause you {huge problems|significant disruption|major issues'," the official said. "What they're doing is really touching the military and security field."

Nocturnal Operations

Now, each evening, security forces deploy in the border zone.

The balloons are most frequent under cover of darkness.

Units set up temporary roadblocks on remote country roads, inspecting drivers' documents and searching vehicles looking for anyone connected to the smuggling networks.

The balloons fly too high to make shooting them down a viable or cost-effective option.

Consequently, the government has offered a €1m prize to any firm that can develop how to safely stop them.

Currently, teams use advanced tracking systems to monitor the balloons and attempt to apprehend smugglers at the landing sites.

Soon, new legal penalties for aviation disruption should also act as a preventive measure.

Strategic Motives

The border itself is now defined by a high security barrier, with barbed wire and fortifications.

This extra security is a clear sign of how Lithuania now considers its neighbour as threatening.

Not far away, the leader of Belarus has rejected all talk of hybrid warfare as "nonsense".

He recently blamed "bandit" smugglers, saying they were simply acting for financial gain and finding innovative ways to overcome the new security fence.

Lithuania is skeptical, partly due to a history of hybrid tactics.

In 2021, migrants were facilitated to cross into Lithuania and Poland in significant quantities, creating a deliberate crisis.

"The current pattern involves a series of one or two balloons every 30 minutes, precisely targeted at the airport," explained a security official.

"{In Belarus... if they were interested in stopping it they could do it immediately. But they don't. That implies it benefits them."

The prevailing theory is that Belarus is attempting to pressure its way into reducing international restrictions.

"They want to draw diplomatic focus and compel us to change our policies towards Belarus," is how one minister views the dramatic increase of balloons.

The EU does not recognise the Belarusian leader as president following contested votes in 2020 and a subsequent crackdown.

Sanctions were levied then and tightened later when Belarus assisted Russia's war of Ukraine.

"{First, they want to end the diplomatic ostracism of the regime and secondly, of course, the sanctions," the minister argued.

Public Discontent

Currently, travellers and airlines must adjust.

"This is something completely new for the aviation sector," stated the airport CEO.

One airline has already relocated its charter flights, and another has reduced its evening service.

Revenue losses for all affected businesses are estimated to reach €2m by year's end.

"One thing is the extra cost, but the greater concern is if passengers start to lose trust in air travel," he admitted.

Already, travellers consult a dedicated website for wind forecasts and balloon probability before booking flights.

"It's stressful, it makes me a anxious. I'd just like to get home as planned," one traveller said.

"We believe this is a hybrid attack on us," said a local resident. "I think for them it's really funny to fly those balloons and then laugh at us."

Her words hint that another aim of such hybrid activity – sowing discontent – is also working, and perhaps more difficult to counter.

"This is effectively probing the limits of Nato: looking at how we respond to these kinds of things," said another citizen.

"And we can't even deal with simple balloons. We're not even equipped for the basic stuff."