‘A Critical Scenario’: War on Iran Squeezes India's LPG Availability.

The repercussions of a conflict being fought nearly 3,000km away are now impacting India's households.

As aerial attacks on Iran disrupt energy deliveries through the Strait of Hormuz, supplies of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are dwindling across India, forcing restaurants to reduce offerings, shorten hours and in some cases close completely.

Social media is flooded by video clips showing queues outside cooking-gas dealers across Indian metros and localities as worries over fuel supplies spread. Restaurant kitchens appear the hardest struck: the sharpest squeeze is in restaurant kitchens.

"The state of affairs is alarming. Kitchen fuel simply cannot be found," says a representative of the a major restaurant body.

Most eateries run either on industrial fuel canisters or pipeline-supplied fuel, and the scarcities are now being felt across the country. "Numerous restaurants have shut down - some in Delhi, many in the south. People are adopting solid fuels and electric cookers to keep their operations going."

City-Specific Fallout

In a financial hub, local news say up to a 20% of eateries are already fully or partly shut as business fuel stocks dry up. In the southern cities of tech and coastal hubs, some eateries say their gas stocks have depleted with scarce alternatives. "Coffee is the sole item we can prepare and no other dishes - it is truly dismal. Businesses are going to suffer," says a chain proprietor in Bengaluru.

Restaurant operators are scrambling to adapt. "Food options are being cut, some are opening only for dinner and operating solely in the evening," an industry representative says, adding that shutdowns are fluctuating as supplies wax and wane. "Three restaurants in Delhi were shut yesterday - some have resumed operations. It's a fluid situation."

Retailers note a surge in sales of induction stoves, with some saying they are facing stockouts.

Authority's View

Yet, the officials states there is no shortage.

India has more than 30 crore domestic LPG users and authorities say stocks are being reallocated to households as conflict-related stress from the regional hostilities ripple through energy markets.

Roughly 60% of India's LPG is imported, and about the vast majority of those shipments pass through the key maritime route, the narrow Gulf chokepoint now largely blocked by the war.

The relevant department says that it instructed refineries to increase LPG output for home needs, lifting domestic production by about a significant margin. Non-domestic supply is being allocated for vital industries such as healthcare and education, while distribution will be "just and open".

"A degree of anxious stocking and accumulation has been triggered by rumors. The normal delivery cycle for home fuel remains about 60 hours," says a government spokesperson.

Widening Concern

Now the worry is moving beyond kitchens. On digital platforms, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a lengthy, winding line of two-wheelers outside a gas outlet. "The panic is real," the caption reads.

According to analysis from industry analysts, concerns about India's broader energy security may be overstated.

India imports 90% of its petroleum. Around 50% of its crude oil imports - about 2.5 to 2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the strait, largely from Gulf countries.

Even if petroleum transit through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted, the shortfall could be partly offset by higher imports of discounted Russian crude, according to a refinery and oil markets analyst.

Based on shipping data and industry information, additional Russian crude imports could reach around a significant volume of barrels a day, lessening India's effective deficit from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

"A large quantity of Russian oil barrels are currently in transit at sea in the Indian Ocean and, with only two major Asian economies as major buyers, those barrels remain a ready fallback," an analyst noted.

Kitchen Fuel: The Primary Concern

The primary concern is kitchen fuel, analysts say.

India consumes roughly 1 million barrels a day, but produces only a minority share domestically, importing the rest - the vast majority through the chokepoint.

Refineries can modify output to squeeze out a bit more LPG, but even a moderate increase would only lift domestic supply to about around half of demand, leaving the country largely dependent on imports.

In short: "Crude supply risk can be partially mitigated through diversification. Refined product supply remains relatively comfortable. Cooking gas supply is the real variable to watch in the coming weeks."

What may be heightening the panic on the ground is not just tight supply but uneven distribution - and the familiar spectre of panic buying.

An industry representative claims opportunistic profiteering.

"Retailers are taking advantage of the situation - black-marketing cylinders and selling them at a premium. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being stockpiled and auctioned off."

For now, India's oil supplies may be buffered by worldwide shipping. But in kitchens across the country, the more pressing concern is simple: how to get the next gas canister.